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From Uncertainty to Value: Probabilistic Decision-Making and Portfolio Optimization in Energy

Thursday, 22 October
Room 371 BE
Technical Session
The session focuses on advanced approaches for decision-making under uncertainty in energy systems. The papers showcase probabilistic frameworks, portfolio optimization methods, and valuation techniques that integrate technical, economic, and strategic factors. By moving beyond deterministic models, these contributions demonstrate how uncertainty can be leveraged to improve capital allocation, manage risk, and support more resilient investment decisions across the asset lifecycle.
Session Chairpersons
Haoming Ma - University of Wyoming
Mohsen Keshavarz - Suncor Energy Inc.
  • 1400-1425 233976
    Beyond Binary Success: A Bayesian Framework For Valuing Strategic Learning And Technical Innovation In Mature Reservoirs
    L.C. Farias-Rodriguez, Halliburton; M. Araya, Stone Ridge Technology; L.A. Garibaldi, Lugre Energy LLC
  • 1425-1450 234094
    Multi-attribute Portfolio Selection In Oil And Gas Exploration: A Utility Framework Incorporating Shannon Entropy
    S. Santos, Petrobras
  • 1450-1515 234095
    Risk - Based Management Of Completion Operations In CC(U)S Projects: The Prinos Field Case Study
    G. Raftopoulos, N. Kokkinos, Democritus University of Thrace
  • 1545-1610 233982
    Fiscal Design As A Competitiveness Tool In Resource-rich Petroleum Provinces: A Framework For Sector Reactivation In Venezuela.
    J.A. Rodriguez, Baker Hughes; G.A. Garcia, International Facilty, IESA
  • 1610-1635 234024
    Association (back-in) Option For A National Oil Company: Analysis For A Commercial Discovery Scenario Offshore Uruguay.
    P.A. Rodriguez, S. Ferro, P. Gristo, ANCAP
  • 1635-1700 233886
    Multi-objective Portfolio Optimization For Energy Infrastructure Investment Under Uncertainty
    G. Moog, Blade Energy Partners; C. Fraces, Tenokonda
  • Alternate 234159
    Western Haynesville Shale: Frontier Valuation Using Damodaran's Three-Tier Narrative Framework
    F. Vera, K. Mire, Mire Petroleum Consultants
  • Alternate 233807
    Optimizing Exploration And Development Investment Decisions Under Market And Technical Uncertainty: A Case Study From The Caspian Basin
    N. Nur-Mammadova, SOCAR Strategic Exploration Group
  • Alternate 233894
    De-risking Enhanced Geothermal Systems Across The Full Project Lifecycle: A Probabilistic Framework For Exploration, Development, And Portfolio Integration
    G. Moog, Blade Energy Partners; C. Fraces, Tenokonda
  • Alternate 234007
    From Mandate To Guidelines: Embedding Gender Equity And Human Rights Into The UNFC And UNRMS Frameworks
    M. Capello, Red Tree Consulting LLC; C. Marras, Saipem; E. Ingvald, United Nations